Voters are starting 2025 sour on the state of the economy and President Donald Trump’s handling of it so far, even as his election to a second term sparked an upswing in positive feelings about the direction of the nation, according to a new national NBC News poll.
Buoyed by jubilant and unified Republicans, who are standing in lockstep with Trump and the expansive agenda he and congressional leaders are pushing in Washington, more registered voters see the U.S. as heading in the right direction than at any point since early 2004, though a majority still say the country is on the wrong track. Trump’s approval rating also equals his best-ever mark as president (47%), though again, a majority (51%) disapproves of his performance.
Meanwhile, driven in part by a pessimistic shift among Democrats since Trump’s election, just 18% of voters rate the economy as “excellent” or “good” — not as low as the poorest economic marks during the Biden administration, according to CNBC polling from 2022, but within a handful of points, and as low as that mark has been in NBC News polling since 2014. Majorities of voters disapprove of Trump’s early job performance on the economy (54% disapprove, 44% approve) and how he’s handling inflation and the cost of living (55% disapprove, 42% approve).
It’s a new development for Trump, who never previously had a majority against his handling of the economy in a national NBC News poll. Now, he is confronting jittery markets and businesses amid his early moves to put tariffs on U.S. neighbors and other allies. Trump also faces questions from voters about whether he is sufficiently focused on their core issue of costs as he pursues other projects like reshaping the federal bureaucracy.
Overall, the poll reflects an America that remains deeply divided in the months following Trump’s 2024 victory, as it was in the months before.
Voters narrowly disapprove of Trump’s overall job performance, but the margin is closer than at almost any point during his first term. His personal ratings and the share of Republicans identifying as part of the MAGA movement have grown, reflecting the unity inside his party giving him wide latitude in a GOP-controlled Washington.
In another change from Trump’s first term in the White House, the public has come around on his deportation-focused immigration policies, though voters are wary of his handling of other issues, including foreign policy.
Voters like the general idea of the Department of Government Efficiency, the Trump-blessed effort to slash government jobs and spending. But they harbor reservations about its rapid-fire execution so far, as well as about billionaire Trump adviser Elon Musk, DOGE’s de facto head.
And voters are split evenly on which party they’d like to see win the 2026 midterm elections, even as the Democratic Party faces record-low popularity and fractious divides over how to respond to Trump. (The survey was conducted March 7-11, before Senate Democrats provided a handful of votes to help resolve a government funding fight.)
Read more from the NBC News poll
“While this survey shows a mixed result for Donald Trump, Democrats are the ones in the wilderness right now,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies. Horwitt called Trump’s upside-down numbers among independents “a flashing red light across the survey.”
McInturff noted how Trump has fortified his base over the last year. The political story of the next year, he said, will be whether voter dissatisfaction on the economy or other issues takes hold — “or the strength of the Republican and Trump base has maintained a very competitive election” in 2026, McInturff continued.
Trump’s expanded base and key issues
Trump’s job approval rating (47%) and personal favorable rating (46%), along with the 44% who believe the country is on the right track, are at all-time highs in NBC News polling during his political career.
But they are also far below where previous presidents stood during the “honeymoon period” of new administrations, marking the polarization that has defined the Trump years. Slightly more disapprove of Trump’s job performance (51%) and view him personally negatively (49%), and 54% see the country as on the wrong track.
Underscoring the deep partisan divide, Trump has the largest gap of any president in the last 80 years between his approval rating among members of his own party (90%) and his approval rating from the opposing party (4%), according to an analysis of three decades of NBC News polling and earlier data from Gallup.
Among independents, 30% approve and 67% disapprove of Trump’s performance in office. A large gender gap still persists, with men approving of Trump’s job performance 55%-43%, while women split the other way, 40%-58%.
Vice President JD Vance is viewed positively by 41% of voters and negatively by 47%. That compares unfavorably to the even or positive appraisals of vice presidents at the beginning of the previous three administrations, according to NBC News polls.
When it comes to the issues, Trump fares particularly well on immigration. Fifty-five percent of voters approve of his handling of border security and immigration, while 43% disapprove. A similar share, 56%, say he’s bringing the “right kind of change” on the issue, while 25% say he’s bringing the wrong change and 18% say he isn’t bringing change.
But that’s the only one of the five issues tested in the poll — border security and immigration, foreign policy, the economy, inflation and cost of living, and the war between Russia and Ukraine — that sees a majority of American voters approve of how Trump is handling it.
Forty-five percent of voters approve of his handling of foreign policy and 53% disapprove of it, while 42% approve of his handling of the war between Russia and Ukraine, with 55% disapproving.
Cost concerns dominate on the economy
The split between how voters see his delivery on immigration and on economic issues comes after Trump identified them as the twin pillars of his 2024 victory, telling NBC News’ “Meet the Press” in December: “I won on the border and I won on groceries.”
Just 1% rate the economy as “excellent” and 17% as “good,” with 39% calling it “only fair” and 43% rating it “poor.” While Republicans are more likely to have favorable views of the economy than others, majorities across virtually every demographic still view the economy in an unfavorable light.
About one-third (32%) of voters say their family’s income is staying about even with the cost of living, but 60% say it’s falling behind. Another 7% say their family’s income is rising faster than the cost of living.
Asked to gauge their satisfaction about how much Trump is doing to battle inflation, a majority say they aren’t satisfied — 46% say they are “not at all satisfied” and another 9% say they are “not too satisfied,” while 20% are “somewhat” satisfied and 23% are “very” satisfied.
The NBC News poll also gauged voters’ feelings on what kind of change Trump is bringing as president, with 40% saying he’s bringing the right kind of change to inflation and the cost of living, while 30% say he’s bringing the wrong change and 28% say he isn’t bringing change.
On trade and tariffs, 41% say he’s bringing the right change, 38% say the wrong change and 18% say he is not bringing change.
Overall, 46% said Trump is bringing the right kind of change, 30% said he’s bringing the wrong kind of change, and 21% said he’s not bringing change.
DOGE and Musk are early flashpoints
Voters are open, narrowly, to an effort to tackle inefficiencies in government. But concerns about Musk and about how DOGE is executing those cuts could be a public opinion liability for the administration.
Forty-six percent of voters say establishing a Department of Government Efficiency was a good idea, while 40% say it was a bad idea and another 13% do not have an opinion. However, DOGE itself is viewed unfavorably, with 41% holding positive views of the effort and 47% holding negative views.
And Musk is unpopular, with 51% holding negative views of the tech mogul and 39% viewing him positively. Half of voters (49%) say they have positive views about federal workers, while 21% view them negatively and 29% feel neutral about them.
Asked to reflect broadly on DOGE, one-third of voters said Musk and DOGE’s efforts to reduce spending and the size of the federal government “should continue as much more needs to be done.” Meanwhile, 28% say “it is needed but should slow down to assess the impact.” And another 33% say “it is reckless and should stop now before more damage is done.”
Democrats at a low point
While Trump’s standing is largely based on overwhelming support from within his own party, the Democratic Party now sits at its lowest favorable rating in the history of NBC News polling. Just 27% of registered voters view the party positively. That includes just 59% of self-identified Democrats.
Meanwhile, 65% of Democrats say they want Democratic lawmakers to stick to their positions even if this means not being able to get things done in Washington, while 32% want them to compromise with Trump to gain consensus on legislation.
Still, voters remain split as to who they want to control Congress after next year’s midterm elections: 48% back Democrats, while 47% back Republicans.
How different groups are handling Trump
As Trump dominates Washington, 53% of registered voters say Republicans in Congress are too supportive of the president, 6% say they are too critical and 39% say they are dealing with Trump in the right way. By comparison, 50% say congressional Democrats are too critical of Trump, 16% say they are too supportive of him and 30% say they are dealing with him in the right way.
A plurality, 44%, believe the Supreme Court is dealing with Trump in the right way, while 35% believe it’s been too supportive and 14% believe it’s been too critical.
A near-majority, 49%, say that CEOs of large corporations are too supportive of Trump, 29% believe they are dealing with him correctly and 12% believe they are being too critical.
And when it comes to the news media, 46% of voters say it has been too critical of Trump, 25% say it’s been too supportive, and 24% say it’s been dealing with Trump the right way.
The NBC News poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from March 7-11 via a mix of telephone interviews and an online survey sent via text message. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
