By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin (BTC) remains stuck near the $95,000 mark, apparently unfazed by the Canadian election result, which saw the crypto-friendly candidate for prime minister lose his seat. Key macroeconomic data due later this week could serve as a catalyst for bitcoin’s next move, with the standout being Friday’s non-farm payrolls report.
In the meantime, the largest cryptocurrency is reaching a series of higher lows and lower highs, forming a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern. This setup following a strong uptrend typically implies a continuation. A decisive breakout above $95,500 could spark the next leg higher, while a drop below support would indicate a potential reversal.
On the technical front, bitcoin’s hashrate, which has surged over recent months and is now about 10% away from its record, is beginning to decelerate. A downward difficulty adjustment of more than 5% is anticipated in four days and will provide some much-needed relief to miners, who have been grappling with hashprice levels near five-year lows.
The week’s macroeconomic data include personal spending and GDP growth figures on Wednesday, though Friday’s jobs report takes center stage. Economists forecast a drop in new jobs to 135,000 during April, down from March’s 228,000 figure, which was the strongest in three months.
The unemployment rate is projected to have held steady at 4.2%, underscoring a persistently tight labor market. The CME FedWatch Tool currently indicates a 91% probability of the Fed funds rate being held at at 4.25%–4.50% at the May 7 FOMC meeting.
Also in the mix, earnings season is heating up, particularly among the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks. Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) report after the market close on Wednesday, followed by Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) and Strategy (MSTR) on Thursday. Stay alert!
