A new study predicts that Bitcoin could hit $1 million as early as 2027 as a result of daily withdrawals from liquid supply exceeding 1,000 BTC.
The model is based on economic fundamentals and describes a setting whereby institutional accumulation is increasing and supply is contracting quickly—driving prices at an increasingly rapid rate.
Published in the Journal of Risk and Financial Management, the study named ‘A Supply and Demand Framework for Bitcoin Price Forecasting’ uses a supply and demand equilibrium model built specifically off of Bitcoin’s fixed issuance schedule. Unlike traditional commodities, Bitcoin is particularly vulnerable to supply shocks because it cannot increase production to meet increasing demand.
“This parameterization suggests that Bitcoin will reach USD 1M prices by early 2027 for all levels of withdrawal >1000 Bitcoin per day,” the study states.
The research paper stated that at the level of daily withdrawals from circulating supply greater than 1,000 BTC, the price trajectory of Bitcoin goes hyperbolic, growing away from the adoption curves by 2028 (at which time the supply shortage will tell a different story), with only the scarcity of supply mattering.
At more aggressive daily withdrawal rates, projections forecast that Bitcoin would reach $2 million by 2027 and $5 million by 2031.
While the authors cautioned against an overinterpretation of the projections on the upper end, they agreed the contextual mechanics further validate Bitcoin’s emerging position as a strategic macro-asset. As behavioral dynamics continue to move Bitcoin into long serial holders, withdrawal amounts needed for new demand will become much more price sensitive.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $84,523.85, with a total global cryptocurrency market cap of $2.64 trillion, as per Kraken’s price feed.
