Benjamin Cowen, a Key Opinion Leader and YouTuber uploaded a video on March 14 in which he suggested that the Bitcoin bull cycle might end if the asset crosses a crucial key price level to the downside at $71,000.
Cowen warned that a loss of the $60,000 range would mean Bitcoin slipped below its 2024 low of roughly $71,000, which could signal the end of the current bull cycle for Bitcoin.
Cowen said, “If there’s a wick in the low $60,000s, then there’s a good chance the cycle is over. If it stays above the 2024 high, then the party could easily go on”.
He thinks it looks very similar to 2017 when it tested the previous year’s high. However, if Bitcoin maintains support above $70,000 to $73,000, Cowen believes the bull cycle structure will remain intact.
According to Cowen, Bitcoin’s performance before the March options expiration (OPEX) might have a bearish undertone due to macroeconomic influences.
While inflation has just dropped to 2.81%, Cowen’s fears that the Fed’s rate-slashing series, which began last September, will produce a 1970s-style inflation bounce have kept markets on a hair-trigger since midyear.
He said, “There likely will not be any type of durable bounce by risk assets until at least March OPEX… It could take as long as early to mid-April if the markets are going to simply wait for more macro data to come in, meaning labor market data and inflation data,” Cowen explained.
Cowen shared that there are two schools of thought about whether tariffs are bullish for the market, which is why uncertainty is rampant. He said, “Now there’s been a lot of uncertainty introduced into the market recently due to all the tariffs and whatnot,” hinting at Trump’s tariffs.
Despite macro uncertainties such as inflation trends, Federal Reserve policy, and tariffs that continue to drive market sentiment, he cautions that a fall into the $60,000 region may signify a bearish change for Bitcoin over the second half of the year.
