This is a daily technical analysis by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.
Crypto bears might want to closely watch bitcoin’s (BTC) recent chart patterns, which mirror those that preceded the late 2024 rally from $70,000 to $109,000.
The first pattern involves the weekly chart’s Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, a momentum indicator used to identify trend changes and reversals. MACD crossovers above or below the zero line typically signal bullish or bearish shifts in momentum.
However, traders interpret these signals in context with price action. A bearish crossover, for example, needs validation through weakening prices; otherwise, it could indicate underlying strength and a bear trap. Currently, that seems to be the case in BTC.
The cryptocurrency initially fell after the MACD flipped negative in mid-February, but quickly found support at the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) in March and has since bounced back above $ 90k. All the while, the MACD has held below zero.
This pattern is reminiscent of last August and September, when prices held the SMA support amid persistent bearish MACD signals. The indicator flipped bullish around mid-October, confirming the trend with a rally from $70K to $100K by December.
The second pattern involves the 50- and 200-day SMAs. About four weeks ago, these averages formed a bearish crossover—commonly known as the death cross—signaling a potential long-term downtrend. However, this turned out to be a bear trap, with bitcoin finding support around $75K and reversing course.
Recently, the 50-day SMA has begun to rise again and could soon cross above the 200-day SMA, setting up a bullish golden cross in the coming weeks.
This pattern closely mirrors last year’s trend: the death cross in August marked a bottom, quickly followed by a golden cross that sparked a breakout above $70K and ultimately led to a rally above $109K to new highs.
In other words, bullish volatility could be on the horizon, potentially taking bitcoin well past the January high of $109K.
Chart patterns are commonly used to assess market strength and forecast future movements. However, it’s important to remember that history doesn’t always repeat itself, and macroeconomic factors can rapidly swing market directions, making chart analysis far from foolproof.
