Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, could serve as an inflation hedge if President Donald Trump’s tariff-driven trade tensions erode the U.S. dollar’s global supremacy, according to analysis from Messari.
“Over time, we believe [tariffs] could lead to Bitcoin decoupling from U.S. equities,” said Dylan Bane, Enterprise Research Analyst at Messari, a crypto research firm. “It may increasingly be viewed not as a tech stock proxy or risk-on trade, but as a credible inflation hedge and long-term store of value.”
Although Messari expects Bitcoin to maintain its high correlation with the U.S. equity market in the near future, it forecasts a major shift in the long-term.
“Continued tariffs could catalyze structural economic change, leading to a decoupling of Bitcoin from traditional assets as it gains recognition as an independent store of value,” Messari’s Bane said.
Currently, investors view Bitcoin as closely tied to the S&P 500, with its correlation sometimes reaching more than 70%. “Most investors do not view Bitcoin as a truly independent store of value,” Bane said, adding that tariffs could serve as a catalyst for undermining the “U.S. dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency.”
It’s a viewpoint increasingly echoed by financial leaders. Last month, Larry Fink, the CEO of the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, said that the U.S. dollar was in danger of ceding ground to Bitcoin. “If the U.S. doesn’t get its debt under control, if deficits keep ballooning, America risks losing [its reserve status] position to digital assets like Bitcoin,” Fink said.
The news comes amid mounting U.S. concerns over inflation, with the Federal Reserve chairman this week citing “high uncertainty” amid ongoing trade tensions. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell drew the ire of Trump on Thursday, after highlighting that his tariffs might exacerbate inflation and create an economic slowdown. “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!” Trump said on social media.
Amid these developments, Bitcoin analysts see opportunities for renewed interest in cryptocurrency, especially as an alternative to centralized and traditional monetary systems.
“The broader economic uncertainty and institutional distrust that come.. could also drive greater interest in crypto more broadly as financial infrastructure not reliant on any single government or monetary authority,” Bane said.
Bitcoin is currently trading at a price around $84,000 after surpassing a new all-time high price of $109,000 this January.
